Welcome Back And Guest Intro

SPEAKER_01 0:00

Hi everyone, welcome back to That's Delivered Again. I'm your host, Truck and Ray, and we have a very special guest to be back on with us again. It's Dan Croak. All month uh we've been highlighting leaders from DAT, and today we've got one of our favorites. Uh Dean brings something unique to trucking. He connects with hard data, uh real world experience, economics, and human performance in a way that actually helps drivers make better decisions, um, especially with uh all the information that DAT gets. Dean puts it out there in a way that's easy to digest. Um, Dean, it's always good to have you back on the show. Dean, how are you doing? Yeah, good. Always good to be with you, Ray. Oh man, it's uh it's a great day when I can get some information from Dean and learn about all the wonderful ways that uh we can do better in the freight industry and the freight market. So yeah, let's start with the big picture, uh the real market pulse. Um if you had to describe the freight market in the world right now, uh, what would it be? What would you say?

SPEAKER_00 1:05

Um volatile. Like this is uh we're at the bottom of the freight market, right? Which is this is extraordinary. Um we're seeing rate volatility like we haven't seen in years, but lacking demand. Like so this isn't a freight demand story. Normally, when you see this kind of volatility in the freight market, so for those that, you know, when I say freight market, I don't mean sand and gravel and diesel and gasoline and jet fuel, right? Or what you do, LTL parcels. Like I'm talking about freight. So freight of all kinds, um, steel, you know, aluminum produce, um, things that move over 250 miles, they're freight of all kinds. So um demand is fairly sluggish to flat, maybe down in some sectors. So demand is not really strong, so it's not like we're hauling more freight. Um, but it's a real capacity story, right? We've seen a lot of capacity exit the market in the last little while. Some of it's because of regulatory pressure. Most of it's though, is because the industry's just been losing more capacity because it's been such a poor rate market. But that's been going on for the last four or five years. So uh we've lost something like 10% of the number of employees in the trucking industry over the last three years in particular. When you look at the number of employees on the Bureau of Labor and Statistics in payroll, like we've been losing employees on the uh employee side of the industry, that's not owner operators. So we've been losing capacity. I think that's the big story. Now, when you look at the regulatory side, like there's been a lot of uh headlines around the illegality or the illegal side of our industry, whether it be uh, you know, sham operators, chameleon carriers, uh uh non-domicile city or carriers, English language proficiency, all those sorts of headlines. That's part of the story. Uh that's added to some of the capacity leave in the industry. The bigger picture is that there has been a structural reduction in capacity for a variety of reasons. So what we've ended up with is we're down here at the bottom of this freight cycle. And that kind of happened in October last year. So we get to Thanksgiving and we had three weeks of back-to-back weather, which I'm sure you were caught up in on the road. Now, when you get to Thanksgiving, which was at the latest possible time in the calendar, then you had four weeks of shipping, you know, freight market, which was a lot of e-commerce sort of into those end consumer markets, and then you had three weeks of freight uh congestion because of extreme weather, particularly in the northern tier. You had a scenario where the freight networks were kind of snarled up because the trucks literally couldn't move. And so spot rates went through the roof, and then they kind of came back a little bit, and then we had winter storm fern and Guiana, and then freight rates took off again. And some people misunderstood that as a sign that the market had flipped. And what they really didn't understand was that you know, the spot markets 20% of the loads moved, and contract markets about 80% of the loads moved. Well, the spot market really was a sign that you know X there was a surge in demand over and above what contract carriers could move. Contract carriers haven't been adding more trucks because rates haven't been that good. So they didn't have a lot more capacity to move extra loads. Now, it wasn't like we were moving more loads, it's just that the rest of the market was moving slower because the weather was so bad. Capacity tightened because trucks were moving slower, not because we had more freight.

unknown 4:50

Right?

Capacity Exit Sets New Floor

SPEAKER_00 4:51

This is what a lot of people struggle with. But during the pandemic, remember we had rates went through the roof during the pandemic. Well, it wasn't because we were moving more loads, it was because the freight network reduced to a crawl because there were no employees on loading docks to load trucks because of the pandemic. So the freight network slowed down. So when the average speed of your network slows down, it tightens capacity. So what we've so when weather hits, capacity tightens and rates go up. Now, so this this weather scenario capacity tightened because the miles got harder and slower and people did fewer of them. And that's one of the things that carriers get caught with is well, the rates go up, but of course you do fewer miles because the miles are harder to come by in the in the bad weather. So even though you might be earning another, you know, two or three cents per mile or 40 cents a mile, you it it doesn't, it's kind of it's a bit of a wash at the end of the week if you couldn't do more miles, or you're held over because of poor weather. So we're kind of at the bottom of this freight market where there's a lot of volatility in the market where rates go up and down because of weather, and uh, but demand is really flat. And um, what we've seen in the last couple of weeks is that the market has cooled off again, predictably. So we've seen seasonality emerge in the dry band and reefer market. In fact, in the last two weeks, the refrigerated market's given up half of the gains that it picked up from the winter storm burn. So when when Fern hit, rates went up 24 cents a mile in two weeks. The last two weeks they'd dropped 11 cents. So, but I think the the big story is so if you said where do we sit now at the end of February? Well, we're about 25% higher than where we were a year ago. So rates have definitely increased compared to where they were a year ago. So there's a new flaw. And I think that's important. If you said, what's the big takeaway from everything I've just waffled that well, there's a new flaw in the freight market. And that means that rates are higher. Why are they higher? There's fewer trucks. So if demand is flat and there isn't any more loads being moved relative to last year, if if demand is flat, it just means that there's fewer trucks to haul the same number of loads. So rates are sitting a little bit higher in the dry van and reefer sector compared to last year. So it looks like there's been a structural removal of capacity in the market, somewhere in the order of four to five percent of the number of trucks on the road have been removed. And I think it's got a lot to do with the market's just been terrible. And there's been a lot of carriers leave, go bankrupt, close their doors. I do think there's been a lot of carriers that have been caught up in the non-domicile CDL business. Insurance companies have squeezed them out, have you know, asked the question about who are your drivers? Are they legitimate carriers? Um, a lot of drivers, though, Ray, have just said, you know what, we're not interested in going anywhere near the southern border and being harassed, like American citizens. So we've actually had them say to us, like, we look at the rates out of McAllen back to Los Angeles, and those drivers come from California.

SPEAKER_02 7:54

Yeah.

Border Enforcement And Produce Volatility

SPEAKER_00 7:54

And like there's a lot of produce carriers that come from California that are American citizen drivers that just won't leave California if you were being harassed. So when you look at the backhaul refrigerated lanes, that the capacity is supplied by California, you can see the rates have been up 40% since September when I set up camp on the southern border. So whether it's Laredo or McAllen, and remember that Laredo and McCallan, half your produce out of Mexico comes through those two ports. Most of it's McCallan, actually. And the Mexico produce season runs from now through May. So what we're seeing is that the there is a structural removal in capacity. There's a lot of volatility on regional freight lanes. So the so whilst the national rates are up, there is a lot more volatility though on other freight lanes. So so then let's go to Florida, which is sort of now we're starting the 2026 produce season. We just had Valentine's Day. Uh, spot rates were up out of Florida ahead of Valentine's Day, where 90% of your fresh flowers come from into Miami. And uh spot rates are up in the order of 40% in the week, you know, leading up to Valentine's Day for produce loads and refill loads out of uh Miami. Well, they crashed by as much last week, after Valentine's Day, because the demand disappeared. So uh again, that's no surpriser. That shouldn't surprise anybody, but why did they go up so much? Why were carriers getting paid a thousand to fifteen hundred dollars more per refrigerated load out of Miami than a year ago? Like that's extraordinary. Well, the reason is, and again, I'm I can't be 100% certain, but the fact that ICE and DHS turned, well DHS in particular, turned every scale house into an immigration enforcement center in September last year in Florida has a lot to do with that. Because anecdotally, we had carriers tell us we're just not interested in going deep into Florida because there's only certain roads in and out, Florida. If your paperwork's not squeaky clean or you're a minority and you're worried about being targeted, drivers were telling us that they were fearful of going anywhere near Florida. And again, we had we had California carriers rejecting loads that were going to Florida, out of California. So so again, I sort of this I'm you could go back and search any of those shows that I've done back in January, and I said, we're we're expecting to see a lot of volatility in Florida when produce season starts. And here was one of the first signs. Now, the cold weather from winter storm fern slowed down berry season, strawberry season's been damaged, uh, blueberry season's been damaged. So produce volumes are behind about 31% year to date in Florida right now. So we're not seeing any of that now. So I think the the capacity, the volatility is going to be hit the most in the refrigerated produce sector this year. That's where I think the real story is going to be. Because I think the the pressure from the regulatory side has been mostly in the reefer sector, because I think that's where a lot of our minority truckers have ended up, the ones that are being targeted the most. And I think that's where we're going to see the big story this year is a lot of volatility is going to be in the refrigerated sector when produce season really starts. Um, flatbed, it's doing what it always does. Flatbed's having a wonderful year, largely because of the AI data center boom. Anything to do with data center construction in the middle of nowhere where there's a crane and permits and a big deadhead component on the back end of it. Flatbed carriers are having a wonderful season. But again, flatbed, we're heading into building construction, planting, nursery, farming, machinery import season, which peaks in March. And uh flatbed carriers are flatbed rates are up in the order of about 15% year over year. So they're having another great year. And um, but again, that's pretty much on par with what flatbed rates always do. They always go up from December through through March, April, May, and then they kind of cool off. So it there's a the you know, dry band reefer behave pretty much the same. Flatbed rates kind of go up and then flat uh then uh then their plateau. But I think the the real story about the freight market is rates are observably higher than where they were a year ago, and that's because capacity has left the market. But what I think I'll pause here because what it means is that for anybody in this market, when we get to the bottom of this market, which is when capacity has largely exited the market and we're at at a point of equilibrium, where in very simple terms the number of loads equals the number of trucks, whenever there's a surge in freight demand, rates will skyrocket. So there's that volatility. So think about Mother's Day, uh, July 4, all those sort of seasonal events, you'll see very few trucks able to handle that surge in demand. So I think this the story of this year will be um constrained capacity meets, you know, sort of stabilizing freight demand. And it just means that Road Check Week in particular this year that's focusing on ELDs, I think you'll see a lot more carriers take time off this year because of the ELD focus. And you'll see rates absolutely go through the roof in that 10-day period, without doubt.

SPEAKER_01 13:46

Nice. Awesome, man. You you know how to cover it.

SPEAKER_00 13:51

Yeah, it's a big summary. Sorry it takes so long to do that.

Tariffs Rewrite Trade In Real Time

SPEAKER_01 13:54

But no, everybody that's listening to Kroke here from DAT. I mean, you guys have all the data and information. Um, talking about data centers. I mean, I'm sure you guys are also staying prepared with all the changes that are coming through. What's um what do you think things are gonna do with uh possibly in the future with tariffs? Um, there are people wondering what that's gonna do to change. Uh, I guess it's maybe too soon to know. Um recording this. So um what would you say?

SPEAKER_00 14:22

Probably probably by the time maybe in a few days from when this airs, it it could change. It could change by uh, you know, in a week's time. Uh uh by the time um I think I think global trade's being rewritten in real time. I think that's the point. But I do think, Ray, a lot of this is already baked in. The uh the betting markets already had factored in that the administration would lose this. So I think a lot of shippers had already figured out that that the administration was going to lose this and that we were going to see um things revert back to where they were. So I think um I I think the uh you know the net change of all of this, the the the Supreme Court ruling is that the global shift to a 15% tariff, which again we didn't see coming, well maybe we should have, um the Yale budget lab estimates that the change reduces the overall effective of US tariffs by only about 2%. So the fact that all of the tariffs were made uh considered illegal, the new 15% global tariff effectively reduces UF cap US tariffs by only 2%, but it varies by tariff. So a 5% reduction for China. So that's what that's what it means for China and Vietnam, no change on the EU, 5% increase for the UK, big reduction for Brazil, down from 40% to 15%. So it's a country by country uh change, but I don't know, I think there's going to be a wait and see approach. I think that a lot of shippers have uh seen um, you know, the whipsawing effect of the last year has made people a lot more cautious. I think shippers and carriers are going to be more cautious on any major inventory bills given past tariff policy volatility. Um, I do think we're going to see um some near-term import surges and bonded warehouse activity. I do suspect there's been a lot of freight sitting in bonded warehouses around the country waiting to move. And of course, the tariff and import duties will be triggered once as soon as they move out of that bonded warehouse. So I think that could be a scenario, particularly along the southern border and some of those big bonded warehouse markets that we have around the country. Um, so you know, you've got a bunch down on Laredo, you've got some around Miami, uh, Memphis, Dallas, Port Worth, big ones around Chicago, Joliet, you've got a bunch around the southern border, around uh Otta Mesa, um, you know, Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle, Tacoma, New York, of course. So I think there's some big warehouse markets that could see some dry van freight flood out of those markets. As to whether it makes a big impact on the national freight market, I don't think so. But again, it all comes back to consumer demand. Like, are you and I going to buy more things? That's going to fundamentally mean you're going to have more LTL freight in the back of your 28-foot pups tonight or your 53-foot vans. Uh, I don't know. I that's the real story. I think that we're just not seeing anything that says we've got more demand that's going to trigger more loads on trucks. If anything, it creates more uncertainty, which means more doubt. Because that was the real story last year. Was when Liberation Day came around, everyone hit the pause button and said, hang on, we need to wait and see. Well, what Friday told us was we need to wait and see again.

SPEAKER_01 17:51

Yeah, patience.

SPEAKER_00 17:52

So I think, yeah, I think I think a lot of people are going to say now, okay, we need to wait and see how this plays out. And I think some of our trading partners have said, okay, if this is illegal and we can get a refund on the you know tariffs we've paid, we need to let this you know play its course. I just don't think there'll be a fundamental increase in truckload demand to the level people are you know hoping for.

Ignore Headlines, Watch ISM PMI

SPEAKER_01 18:15

So yeah, so if it does spike, just still be patient and wait it out. Is that some of the mistakes people are you're seeing? Uh carriers, uh, once they see the headlines, they see the trends, uh what would you say to them uh for you know not to make this mistake or to repeat a mistake?

Hotshot Part-Loads And Diesel Tailwinds

SPEAKER_00 18:34

Yeah, I'd just say keep your powder dry. Like, you know, don't be don't get too caught up in the headlines. You know, the internet rushes to fill a vacuum with with headlines, and uh and and we all want rates to improve. Now, we started the segment talking about rates are up 25% year over year. The rub there is that higher rates is going to attract capacity back into the market. People are gonna buy trucks and join the market. Well, isn't that isn't that a crazy scenario? You've just gone through a year where everyone was bellyaching about all these sham carriers in the market that were driving rates down. Well, rates are going up now, which everyone wanted. Well, that means that in a free market like this, people are gonna go out and buy trucks and join the market again. Now, that's a problem if demand isn't there. So I would say be very careful about what you wish for and don't get caught up in the headlines. I would just say to people, ignore the headlines and just worry about your own backyard. Like control what you can. Like that's that's old advice. That's not new advice. Like control, worry about the things you can control. Because this isn't a time to be getting too caught up in the headlines because we still don't have any fundamental signs that demand for truckload tonnage is stable enough that we can say the market is improving. Right now, so rates are up 25% year over year. We had we've seen some capacity leave, but the market hasn't flipped. Now, I look at one data point I watched that's absolutely critical for truckload carriers watching is the ISM Purchasing Managers Index, which comes out on the second or third of each month. Now, January came out, it was up for the first time in almost a year. So the ISM PMI has a very strong positive correlation to the direction of dry ban rates. So it's it comes out next week. So now I I said it, I said back in January, if we see three months of positive uh movement, so it's a it's a diffusion index. So it's anything above 50 means the economy is can expanding. Anything below 50, it's it's contracting. So it's been below 50 for best part of last year. Well, it was at 52.6 in January. So if it's above 50 in February and above 50 in March, and it's in expansion territory, and new orders, which are new orders at manufacturers, and new orders mean loads on trucks eventually. So all that, you know, domestic manufacturing is sort of the thing that underpins the trucking industry. It puts loads in the back of your trailer, it puts loads on the back of trucks on the DAT network. Those domestic manufacturing numbers are absolutely critical to more demand and then people buying more trucks and large truckload carriers like Werner and Swift and Schneider ordering more new trucks, right, from manufacturers. So all those demand is absolutely critical, but we need a couple of months of really positive indicators to say, okay, now we've got something. The market's on the way to improving. Well, the Supreme Court ruling and then 15% global tariffs might have just pulled the air out of that. We'll have to see what happens now. It's exactly what happened last April. Like the market was improving in January, February, March last year. There is no question the freight market was improving because all the numbers were heading up. And then the trade war started and the market tanked. Well, we've just had one month of really positive numbers, and we're waiting for February to drop shortly. And now we had the Supreme Court ruling, and now a 15% global tariff, and now more uncertainty. We may have another repeat of last year on our hands. I just don't know. No, so it's kind of a wait and see attitude. I would be if my advice to carriers would be this is still a cost control market, like controlling your costs and and being being very cautious is the absolute name of the game. Because even though rates are up and your margins may be expanding, there's there's still no certainty that freight demand that underpins everything is we're really on solid footing just yet.

SPEAKER_01 22:49

Wow. Yeah, that's beautifully said. I think uh a lot of people can benefit from that. What would you say uh for the hotshot market? A lot of people get into the box trucks and the smaller uh vehicles because you don't have to have the same type of requirements, you know, maybe class B or less. Um what would you say about that industry?

SPEAKER_00 23:08

Yeah, I think there's opportunity there. I think there's always been opportunity. That's one sector that has stuck during the entire pandemic. I think there's a lot of opportunity, particularly when rates start to go up. I think there's an opportunity for partloads at more attractive rates. I think that's gonna be a segment that's gonna hold. Because I think there's, you know, finding ways to move freight um partloads at you know lower costs per mile is probably gonna be a segment that could win when rates start to rise. I'm not an expert in the hot shot market, but I that's it, it's it's one segment that I have seen do exceptionally well during the entire pandemic. So there seems to be a shift from on the shipper side to part loads. So we've seen in our business, and it's largely been driven by shippers' lack of willingness to have higher levels of inventory to fill full trailer loads.

SPEAKER_01 24:05

Yeah, yeah.

SPEAKER_00 24:06

So it means that they're they're they're when the orders come in, they're less likely to put you know, weight to fill a van, a dry van, they're shipping it out in into hot shot segments rather than waiting for a 53-foot dry van. So I think that's a segment that has stuck and is likely to continue. And I think there's some real cost advantages for shippers on that front. So I think it's a segment that's going to grow. I I think on the demand side, there is there is uh still good times ahead for that segment.

SPEAKER_01 24:36

Yeah, I mean, it's definitely a great time to think about planning if uh if anything for the shipper, or also if you are a person who's trying to do something different.

SPEAKER_00 24:44

Especially while diesel diesel stays relatively low compared to where it's been, like lower. I mean, still it's still favorable. Like it's we've just seen diesel prices relatively um low compared to where they were a year ago. Like so I don't see headwinds there on the diesel front for that segment. So I think that's that's another positive.

ELD Fraud, Roadcheck Week Risks

SPEAKER_01 25:03

Yeah, I think something that's something maybe that will be more consistent. Um, who knows how I got there? Um, there'd be a lot of speculation, but uh maybe for the next three years um we can expect that at least. Yeah. Um what about the human factor uh performance when it comes to sleep and efficiency? I know you're an expert on that as well. We need to get your viewpoint on that. Um I mean, you got the ELD. Um, there's some talk about them making some changes there. Uh, what would you say for for the interviews out there that are, you know, maybe they're fighting burnout or maybe they're looking for relief. Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 25:40

Um talk of flexibility. I see a lot of headlines around um people going back to paper logs. Um I think it's wishful thinking. I I do see a big push by the FMCSA to go towards get away from self-certification. So I think that's a really good move. I think there's there's been a big problem around ELDs that are um the self-certification model has has always been a problem in my mind. It's allowed a lot of companies to come in and create these uh software packages where they can um essentially allow carriers to uh reset their hours every night, which is kind of crazy, right? I don't know if I I listened to a large carrier CEO at a conference last week in Miami say that they're overnight uh overnight resets. And I said, What do you mean overnight resets? And he said, Well, these are inter these are companies that are international providers of ELDs and they're allowing long-distance truckers to reset their 60 and 70 every night. Which I thought, that's crazy. Like it's so it's not a 34-hour reset every week, and they said, no, they're doing it every night. So it's it's kind of like this jailbroke ELD concept where you could run 4,000 miles physical, but only record 2,500 on your ELD device.

unknown 26:56

Wow.

SPEAKER_00 26:57

So it's a bit like an electronic paper log, if you know what I mean.

SPEAKER_02 27:00

Yeah.

Sleep Science For Safer Miles

SPEAKER_00 27:01

Like so, so there's there's all of these carriers out there that have been running these illegal ELD devices running more miles, creating more capacity than and but recording a much lower level of hours and miles on their ELD device. And the and the FMCSA has been getting rid of them on their register. You can see them, you can see the company names on their on the FMCSA website. So that's why RoadCheck Week on May the 12th to 14th is focusing on ELDs this time around. So I think there's a big focus on ELDs. Now I think carriers, once they kick these companies off, they go to paper logs. And um so there's a there's that side of it. So I don't know how many carriers are going to get caught up in that side of it. That's a concern. But I think your broader question is forget all that, forget all the ELDs and and human performance. The one thing I would say to you, forget the compliance and the ELD side of it. The one thing that you always need to do, regardless of all that, is just start work at the same time every day. Like it's a simple formula. Doesn't matter how many hours you drive or whatever you do, you know that from your schedule.

SPEAKER_01 28:13

Yeah, you meant that last time, too.

SPEAKER_00 28:15

Yeah, you stay. Um the human brain is really, really simple when it comes to the sleep wake cycle. It's got a the the biggest important uh input is light. Like so our sleep-wake cycle is set by the rising and setting of the sun. So uh blue light in particular within the invisible light spectrum is the thing that really starts your your uh sleep wake cycle every day. So if you're not starting work at the same time every day, your sleep cycle is disrupted. So an inconsistent start time means your sleep cycle is disrupted. And that's what drives safety in the wrong direction every single day. So I would say to anyone, regardless of what how many hours you work or where you drive, or whether you're a hot shot or a long distance truck or an LTL or a heavy hauler, the one thing I would say to you, and and so this is someone that's been in trucking for 48 years, I would say to you, start work at the same time every day, become a creature of habit. No matter so design your schedule, your pickups, your delivery windows around when you get out of bed every day, but make it the same time every day. Become a creature of habit and don't negotiate on it because you will run better, you'll feel better, you'll be healthier, you'll eat better. It'll just power all of those good decisions you need to make every day. Because, hey, Ray, without sleep, we all behave like two-year-olds. We all know that, right?

SPEAKER_01 29:38

Yeah. Yeah, yeah. It comes out on their own too. Don't we? Wow, what's going on? So you think biocapable scheduling is gaining any uh traction at all for companies like that?

SPEAKER_00 29:49

I don't think so. You know, biocompatible scheduling is it's um I'm a learn voice when it comes to this. I think so. Biocompatible scheduling was very popular during the paper log era because that's what we all did. We just didn't call it biocompatible scheduling. We just slept when we were tired and drove when we were awake. That's what it was called. We just slept according to our biology. Now, now it's got a fancy title now because we all know about sleep science, but heck, go in and try and put in a biocompatible schedule into a trucking company and get them to design a schedule around a driver's sleep pattern and get them to book appointments with a shipper or a receiver around when a driver wants to sleep and see how long that conversation lasts. They laugh at you. But but if you actually get it to work, you would not believe the difference it makes. And it and it works. Like it's not like you're doing less loads or less miles, you're just doing them differently. Like it's not complicated. With all the technology we've got today, it's actually much easier to do. It just requires people to have the right level of imagination and commitment.

SPEAKER_01 31:17

Yeah, I mean, there's a there's a lot of uh daytime sleepiness, there's a lot of people that take uh medicine to go to sleep. And uh who knows what the long-term effects are. You know, you're gonna be able to do it.

SPEAKER_00 31:28

Well, a lot of it's too with light, Ray. You mean you talk about uh winter time, like uh excessive daytime sleepiness is a symptom of um, you know, it's a sleep apnea symptom, but also in winter when you get lot less of less levels of light, you have um you know, you have that sleep disorder that comes from lack of sunlight. Yeah so it's a form of depression that you get. So there's light is a really important thing to to um to you know stay in touch with. Um sleep doesn't happen by accident. Like I think that's the thing you've got to focus on as a driver. It's not a one-size-fits-all, everybody's got to work harder at this as they get older. Um, light is a really important thing. So we tend to yeah.

SPEAKER_01 32:13

I go to Texas and the sun hits the windshield, and I'm like, we're gonna go, man, this is nice. You know, it's not gonna come back to the Midwest. And yeah, like you're up in north uh northeastern part there. And I mean, man, yeah, yeah. The weather makes a huge difference on your morale and just everything.

Lessons From The Australian Outback

SPEAKER_00 32:31

Well, it's called SAD, right? Seasonal affective disorder. So that's what people in northern latitudes or up in Alaska get affected with. That's what it's called, sad, and it's uh it's a form of depression from lack of light. So there's all sorts of light therapy you can use to supplement, you know, light or blue light in particular, but it's um you know, it's the reverse in summer. Like so, you know, when you've got 15 hours of sunlight, um, the sleep gate doesn't open till late at night because you've got so much light. Your sunset's not till nine at night. Yeah, your brain's not getting the signal at nights here. And that's why truck accidents and car accidents go up in summer. You know, you would think, oh, there's less accidents in summer. Well, no, you got less sleep. So you had more accidents.

SPEAKER_01 33:15

So it's the insurance company, man, because it's uh they had a bad storm come through here and it was dry. And then when I got back, but there were tons of semis that I think they just leave in the ditch and come back later. Um yeah, because it's I think it passed six um just in a short period of time in one state. And uh it's like, man, that was two days ago.

SPEAKER_00 33:41

Yeah. Yeah, it's pretty wild what goes on in winter. Um this is an amazing country for weather. It's extreme.

SPEAKER_01 33:50

Yeah, tell me about that. Um, I know you come from a different country, and that is about the same size as the as uh United States, but you know, it's a total climate.

SPEAKER_00 34:01

You have no jet stream, no gulf, no gulf stream, you have no uh it's nothing. Like it's flat and you have um no topography, no Sierras, no Rocky Mountains, so you have um it's one-dimensional weather. It's just hot and dry.

SPEAKER_01 34:15

Really? Yeah. Because I see a lot of um like the desert like outback backwoods, I call them out back in Australia. But uh yeah, it looks like what I would see in Colorado, Wyoming.

SPEAKER_00 34:30

So if you go from um if you go from Kilgore in Texas to Albuquerque, you know that that terrain, right? You go from the pine trees in Kilgore to the desert in uh uh Albuquerque, that's the same as going from Sydney to Perth in Australia. Really? That's like that's that three. So what's that? Is that I don't know how many miles that is from Kilgore to Albuquerque, but that's that's the 3200 miles across Australia. And in between though, is nothing. Like so, so in a truck from you know Sydney to Perth in Australia, it's uh used to do it with express, it was 43 hours. So we do it in express 43 hours. Um it's 4200 kilometers. I can't remember what that is in miles, but um once you once you get out outside of the metro area, there's nothing. Like so, there's a couple of truck stops on the way, but it's a lot of straight road nothing and no one to call. Like, so you're not calling anybody for a flat tire. So we've got four tires under the trailer, and like we're changing tires if we blow one, and and you got six tanks of fuel, so you've got seven, eight hundred gallons, you've got belly tanks, uh diesel. So like you're um it's a survival game. Like, so you're not like it's a whole different deal in the when you talk about the outback, like it's a it's like a really inhospitable area if you break down.

SPEAKER_01 35:54

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 35:54

But but there's lots of but there's not lots, there's other truckers around. So it's like trucking's a little bit different. You never you never not pull up if someone's broken down. So what's the golden rule? You never, ever drive past someone that's broken down because it could be you tomorrow. So and we're all we're all pretty handy at fixing things. Like so the you know, the rule is you fix what you break. Um the other rule is you ring dispatch from a long way away in the morning.

SPEAKER_01 36:27

No pens.

SPEAKER_00 36:28

You've got to be able to you've got to be able to make a really good mile.

SPEAKER_01 36:31

Like you don't have anybody just showing up in a pickup truck.

SPEAKER_00 36:35

So yeah, we we have we carry iron tools, like so. We have toolboxes, like we carry tools, tool sets. Like I still have a like I ha in my Peterbelt, I've got tools, like I got four toolboxes. I can mine's a show truck.

SPEAKER_01 36:48

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

SPEAKER_00 36:50

I can call anybody to fix my truck anywhere, but I have four toolboxes. Right? I have more spare parts under my truck just in case. It's a it's a habit. Nice. Like I just fix stuff. So so yeah, trucking in the Outback is very different. But again, it's it's like I think that's how it should be. Like I think I think that's how you I when I take the profession seriously. I I think it's a it's a profession. I mean, I think that's how it should be. Like you should take this job seriously. But um I don't say that glibly because this industry can spit you up and spit you out really quickly if you don't take it seriously. You you know what it's like every night when you're out there. You're gonna take your eye off the wheel for a second and it can destroy you. So not even that's just the physical driving part. Then there's the mental and health aspect if you don't take it seriously. I mean, this is a hard job, it's a hard industry.

SPEAKER_01 37:43

Yeah, sleep after a while.

SPEAKER_00 37:45

You gotta take it seriously, yeah.

SPEAKER_01 37:47

You gotta really pay attention.

SPEAKER_00 37:48

Um great industry, like wonderful industry. I love the people. I've been involved in it all my life. Like it's a really good industry. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 37:58

Especially you guys over there at DAT, man. I mean, I really love the way you guys present yourself, the way you put things out there for people to understand, and the knowledge that you guys are able to obtain. I mean, I mean, that's a lot of data that you guys are sifting through.

Pride, Load Securement, Professionalism

SPEAKER_00 38:11

I mean, we've got a trillion trillion dollars worth of rate data that's we've amassed over the, you know, like we were been around 47 years, but our rate data set's probably spanning about 15 years now. So it represents the you know, our average rates are a really good starting point for anyone trying to figure out what's the rate on a lane. Like it's a great starting point. It's like no one's hauling rates at$2.48 a mile today, but that's a starting point. If that's the average rate on a dry van nationally, that's a great starting point. Or if you want to know what a lane is, that's the place you start your negotiation.

SPEAKER_01 38:43

So what would you say to someone that is just looking at Facebook groups and not really paying for a load board?

SPEAKER_00 38:49

Or like be very careful. They people could be trying to misdirect you. Like that's like someone at a truck stop telling you what a rate is. They could be trying to tell you what the rate is for the wrong reasons. Be very careful with that.

SPEAKER_01 39:02

Nice, nicely said.

SPEAKER_00 39:03

So just because it's on the internet doesn't mean it's true.

SPEAKER_01 39:06

Right. Yeah, just because someone prints it. So that's why I like these interviews also, is that we can talk about it a little longer versus just a comment here and there. And um, and looking ahead, um, maybe over the remaining part of the year, what are some early indicators you're watching more closely? Um, maybe like a catalyst that could accelerate recovery. What would you say?

SPEAKER_00 39:28

Uh so the just to recap, the ISM PMI that we talked about. So next week's next Tuesday when the Institute of Supply Management PMI comes out, I'm watching two things. If it's the headline number is above 50, and if the new orders number in particular is above 50 and higher than what it was last month, there are two numbers I'm watching next that really importantly. Um, the next the next data point I'm really watching is what happens when um produce starts running out of Salinas, California. So when the transition happens from Yuma Um to Salinas, that's an so humor is where iceberg lettuce gets uh produced during winter, it's the winter salad bowl. Transition happens back to Salinas, that becomes the summer salad bowl. That's where you start to see most of your produce, strawberries, uh all of those, like so most of our produce is going to come from California over the summer. Those volumes really start to move in March or April, probably late March. What I'm really watching for is to see what happens with refrigerated rates. Um, capacity's been tight, but rates haven't accelerated yet. Outbound California. They're up about 10% compared to last year. Now, so if capacity has really exited the market, it'll start to show in about three or four weeks in California for outbound produce. If that's the case, that sets up a scenario where dry band rates will also rise throughout the rest of the year. Because the because reefer rates, because the dry band carriers, sorry, the reefer carriers that are under dry band loads will switch back to the reefer market and that'll tighten the dry band market. That's that's why the two track each other. So I think that's what I'm watching for is the start of produce season out of California, if that provides any lift in the market. So there that's the first tell. That's the second thing I'm really watching for. And I think we'll start to see um we we may see a little bit more lift on some of the port markets. Um I'm watching for California to have a bit of a rebound in their imports, maybe an early peak season. We could see some of that if uh China starts to send a few more imports back in um in April. So I'm watching some of that to to see. So there that that's the I think the produce season is going to be the biggest tell, Ray.

SPEAKER_01 41:58

All right. So personally, to close, uh, what's some things that keep you optimistic about trucking uh that you can share with people out there to keep their heads up?

SPEAKER_00 42:07

Um truck shows. I think truck shows are always the tell, right? How many people go to truck shows? The fact that Mid-America's in 31 days or 30 days, um, it tells me people are still making money, they still care, there's still the passion for the industry. Um there's a lot of doom and gloom in the industry if you live on the internet. There's a lot of rage baiting, there's a lot of negative comments on Facebook. Um, but hey, when I go to truck shows and I meet the backbone of the country, the industry, the old school truckers, it gives me hope that the industry is aligned well and people are still making money, and that there's a lot of people that are doing exceptionally well. So truck show seasons are is weeks away, and that's what I look forward to because that's what keeps me going. Like it's sort of the it's the kind of that ray of sunshine that's out there, you know, in in what can be a very dark, gloomy industry.

SPEAKER_01 43:04

Wow. I mean, what's something that people when they look at the industry uh that we get right that other people don't understand? What would you say to that?

Indicators Ahead: Produce And Ports

SPEAKER_00 43:15

Uh what do we get right? Um we yeah, we we get stuff done. Like we I think we do it with a we we do it without any fuss. I mean, we we just get stuff delivered. Um we do it, we do it in a way that we make it look so easy that most people don't even notice. That's that's the part I I a lot of truckers think, oh that's there's nothing to that. Like, and I think no, there is a lot to doing what you just did. Like do you running an LTL turn at night? There's an enormous amount of risk in doing what you do. I know it. Like I know what you fight every night.

SPEAKER_01 43:58

Well, now I'm probably uh doing the sleeper too, or I'm sleeping in the back while someone else drives.

SPEAKER_00 44:03

Oh, yeah, even harder, even harder. So yeah, that's tough, man. That's tough. So so doing so I I think that's the part that most people don't understand is that we just we make you know, we deliver, we carry the economy one load at a time, and I think that's the part most people don't understand is um we make it look so effortless, yet it goes unnoticed. And I think that's the to me, that's the part that makes us so special.

SPEAKER_01 44:32

That's awesome. Beautifully said. Um we'll speak on that too. I mean, that's delivered, you know. That's why I came up with the name. Yeah, it's just that's the best part when you when you get it delivered. That's it's the final product. You know, you don't have to say anything. There it is.

SPEAKER_00 44:46

Well it's a lot of pride. I thought I think there's an enormous amount of pride. People say, Why did you love trucking? I said, I always take a lot of pride in tying down a load on a flatbed, delivering it undamaged, not wet, and in one piece. Like there's a that takes a lot of skill on terrible roads, mind you. Like wow, but turning up on time with it in one place, not damaged. Like I used to take enormous pride in that.

SPEAKER_01 45:10

That's great.

SPEAKER_00 45:11

It's crazy. Like people think, are you nuts? Yeah, I used to love that.

SPEAKER_01 45:16

I mean, I think that's great. Um especially the part where you say it's dry. I mean, those tarps double tarped if you don't do it right, I mean it can really take away and even probably hurt somebody too, because if they fly off, they'll cover entire cars and stuff.

SPEAKER_00 45:30

So I saw a post the other day, Adam Wingfield, on LinkedIn, and someone was talking about straps on loads of steel. And I said, I would never haul a load of steel with straps. I don't care if the ship has said no chains. I'm chaining that load like you wouldn't pull that. I'm putting every chain I've got on it. I don't care about the rules about how many chains per every 10 feet. I'm putting as many chains on that thing as I can. I don't care. I'm putting every chain I've got out of that toolbox. Every chain. I would never haul a load of steel with straps. I don't care what you say. That stuff moves like you wouldn't believe. And uh minimum the minimalist approach doesn't work for me with steel. And and and and this post was about a shipper saying you can't use chains because it'll scratch the steel. And I'm thinking about it. No, no, no, no, no, no, no. That shipper doesn't understand how steel moves because you can't get enough bite on Ibeams. I don't care. You just they don't know how freight moves under a load. So um anyway, just I mean, that's just a personal opinion, but I think there's a lot to um handling freight. There's and I think the only thing that makes it not a big deal in this country is the roads are so good. We just don't your roads, the roads here, right, are so good that you don't need the level of load securement that other countries do.

SPEAKER_01 46:54

Oh I can only I can't there. Wow, um I'm spoiled because uh yeah, I'm back to the bigger. I think we are here.

SPEAKER_00 47:01

I think we are here, yeah, because you don't have the soft shoulders and single-lane blacktop that I come from. Um where you've got to chain that bad boy down where there's everything you've got, chain it within an inch of its life, so it's not moving sideways or forward and back. So I just but I think that's that's but that's part of the psyche, right? Because I always would load my time I load down to to what's the worst possible scenario that could happen.

SPEAKER_01 47:26

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 47:26

Like not the minimal. Like, what's the minimum the regulation says I need to do? No, I'm what's the worst thing that could happen? That's what I'm protecting against. Because you know one day it could happen. And in this country, yeah, that that could be jail.

SPEAKER_01 47:43

Yeah, yeah, or uh um worse.

SPEAKER_00 47:47

Right, yeah.

SPEAKER_01 47:48

So, man, we covered quite a bit. As always, I'm I'm happy with all the things you're able to inform people of and educate as to how they can get that information through DAT. Uh, I think you're a huge asset and also love your truck, they can repeat. So anytime anybody goes to the truck show, check out the Incroakes truck. Uh, they can repeat, right?

SPEAKER_00 48:10

Yep, yeah. We'll be at uh Mid American Truck Show in a few days.

SPEAKER_01 48:14

Yeah, um, you're gonna be taking plenty of pictures, I'm sure. Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 48:17

Yep, yeah.

Truck Shows, Tech, Closing CTAs

SPEAKER_01 48:18

What do you think about the uh I've seen another uh you think any autonomous trucks will show up there for people to look at? I hope not.

SPEAKER_00 48:28

Oh, there will be. I'm I'm curious. I I want to see if they're driver assist. You know, I I'm not I'm not sold on the whole autonomous thing, but I do I do like the idea of driver assist. Like so help me drive at four in the morning. You know, like you know, help me. Now we're talking. Yeah, I think I think that's the approach. I don't like the whole idea of take me out of the cab. I don't that doesn't make sense because I just don't that doesn't make sense to me. Like I don't know.

SPEAKER_01 48:55

We're gonna find out, I guess.

SPEAKER_00 48:57

Yeah. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 48:59

Oh man, so as always, we really appreciate your perspective, your data without the drama. That's exactly what the industry needs. If anyone wants to check out this episode or share with the driver, uh we really appreciate it. Leave a review, follow us as and also if you uh check out DAT. Um, we're gonna have a special where all of these come out here in April. So um this is recorded a little earlier, but uh we want to make April a DAT month uh for that delivered. So thank you so much, Dean. And also, where can people reach you? Um, where's the best place to keep all your updates and um your posts? What's the best place to look?

SPEAKER_00 49:38

Yeah, um you can catch the uh every 11 a.m. Monday DAT freight and analytics YouTube show. That's where I do all my freight market analytics. Uh, that's probably the best way to get that. Um, LinkedIn's the best place. Um just shoot me a uh direct message on LinkedIn. You can uh send me your email and I can get you on our weekly uh market update email list. That'll be the best way.

SPEAKER_01 49:58

Awesome, awesome. Thank you so much again. All right, well, appreciate you coming on the show. And uh that's delivered.